MLB win probability, pitch by pitch.
Coach is reading tonight's lines — pitchers, weather, and forecasts settle moments before first pitch.
Coach is reading tonight's slate…
Coach's full read on tonight's lines — model probabilities against sportsbook odds, with Kelly-sized stake guidance — is available to signed-in users.
2024 Backtest·Full season held out from training — no look-ahead.
87.9% accurate on high-confidence calls across 43,236 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1636.
2025 Backtest·Second consecutive full season out-of-sample — model trained 2010–2024.
88.6% accurate on high-confidence calls across 43,219 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1624.
2026 Live·Season-to-date, through 2026-05-24.
88.6% accurate on high-confidence calls across 7,109 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1649.
Brier score measures calibration error — 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. Accuracy when confidentis the model's hit rate on calls it rated ≥70% probability.
Coach watches every plate appearance through a 75-state lead-aware Markov chain trained on 2.6M historical plate appearances. Pre-game forecasts pull from starting-pitcher FIP, lineup wOBA, park, weather, and bullpen depth. Live forecasts update with each pitch — model output, no gut feel, no pick-of-the-day.